Forecasting Scientific Progress with Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly embedded in scientific discovery, yet whether it can anticipate scientific progress remains unclear. To study this question, we introduce a temporally grounded evaluation framework for forecasting scientific progress under controlled knowledge constraints. We present CUSP (Cutoff-conditioned Unseen Scientific Progress), a multi-disciplinary and event-level benchmark that evaluates scientific forecasting in AI systems through feasibility assessment, mechanistic reasoning, generative solution design, and temporal prediction. Across 4,760 scientific events, we observe systematic and domain-dependent limitations in current frontier models. While models can identify plausible research directions from competing candidates, they fail to reliably predict whether scientific advances will be realized and systematically misestimate when they will occur. Performance is highly heterogeneous across domains, with the timing of AI progress more predictable than advances in biology, chemistry, and physics. Performance is largely insensitive to whether events occur before or after the training cutoff, suggesting these limitations cannot be explained solely by knowledge exposure in training data. Under controlled information access, additional pre-cutoff knowledge improves performance but does not close the gap to full-information settings, which becomes more pronounced for high-citation advances. Models also exhibit systematic overconfidence and strong response biases, indicating unreliable uncertainty estimation. Taken together, current AI systems fall short as predictive tools for scientific progress. Access to prior knowledge does not translate into reliable forecasting, and performance benefits more from post-event information than from forward-looking prediction.

Code as Agent Harness

Recent large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong capabilities in understanding and generating code, from competitive programming to repository-level software engineering. In emerging agentic systems, code is no longer only a target output. It increasingly serves as an operational substrate for agent reasoning, acting, environment modeling, and execution-based verification. We frame this shift through the lens of agent harnesses and introduce code as agent harness: a unified view that centers code as the basis for agent infrastructure. To systematically study this perspective, we organize the survey around three connected layers. First, we study the harness interface, where code connects agents to reasoning, action, and environment modeling. Second, we examine harness mechanisms: planning, memory, and tool use for long-horizon execution, together with feedback-driven control and optimization that make harness reliable and adaptive. Third, we discuss scaling the harness from single-agent systems to multi-agent settings, where shared code artifacts support multi-agent coordination, review, and verification. Across these layers, we summarize representative methods and practical applications of code as agent harness, spanning coding assistants, GUI/OS automation, embodied agents, scientific discovery, personalization and recommendation, DevOps, and enterprise workflows. We further outline open challenges for harness engineering, including evaluation beyond final task success, verification under incomplete feedback, regression-free harness improvement, consistent shared state across multiple agents, human oversight for safety-critical actions, and extensions to multimodal environments. By centering code as the harness of agentic AI, this survey provides a unified roadmap toward executable, verifiable, and stateful AI agent systems.

Recursive Multi-Agent Systems

Recursive or looped language models have recently emerged as a new scaling axis by iteratively refining the same model computation over latent states to deepen reasoning. We extend such scaling principle from a single model to multi-agent systems, and ask: Can agent collaboration itself be scaled through recursion? To this end, we introduce RecursiveMAS, a recursive multi-agent framework that casts the entire system as a unified latent-space recursive computation. RecursiveMAS connects heterogeneous agents as a collaboration loop through the lightweight RecursiveLink module, enabling in-distribution latent thoughts generation and cross-agent latent state transfer. To optimize our framework, we develop an inner-outer loop learning algorithm for iterative whole-system co-optimization through shared gradient-based credit assignment across recursion rounds. Theoretical analyses of runtime complexity and learning dynamics establish that RecursiveMAS is more efficient than standard text-based MAS and maintains stable gradients during recursive training. Empirically, we instantiate RecursiveMAS under 4 representative agent collaboration patterns and evaluate across 9 benchmarks spanning mathematics, science, medicine, search, and code generation. In comparison with advanced single/multi-agent and recursive computation baselines, RecursiveMAS consistently delivers an average accuracy improvement of 8.3%, together with 1.2$\times$-2.4$\times$ end-to-end inference speedup, and 34.6%-75.6% token usage reduction. Code and Data are provided in https://recursivemas.github.io.

Estimating the Impact of COVID-19 on Travel Demand in Houston Area Using Deep Learning and Satellite Imagery

Considering recent advances in remote sensing satellite systems and computer vision algorithms, many satellite sensing platforms and sensors have been used to monitor the condition and usage of transportation infrastructure systems. The level of details that can be detected increases significantly with the increase of ground sample distance (GSD), which is around 15 cm - 30 cm for high-resolution satellite images. In this study, we analyzed data acquired from high-resolution satellite imagery to provide insights, predictive signals, and trend for travel demand estimation. More specifically, we estimate the impact of COVID-19 in the metropolitan area of Houston using satellite imagery from Google Earth Engine datasets. We developed a car-counting model through Detectron2 and Faster R-CNN to monitor the presence of cars within different locations (i.e., university, shopping mall, community plaza, restaurant, supermarket) before and during the COVID-19. The results show that the number of cars detected at these selected locations reduced on average 30% in 2020 compared with the previous year 2019. The results also show that satellite imagery provides rich information for travel demand and economic activity estimation. Together with advanced computer vision and deep learning algorithms, it can generate reliable and accurate information for transportation agency decision makers.

iSight: Towards expert-AI co-assessment for improved immunohistochemistry staining interpretation

Immunohistochemistry (IHC) provides information on protein expression in tissue sections and is commonly used to support pathology diagnosis and disease triage. While AI models for H\&E-stained slides show promise, their applicability to IHC is limited due to domain-specific variations. Here we introduce HPA10M, a dataset that contains 10,495,672 IHC images from the Human Protein Atlas with comprehensive metadata included, and encompasses 45 normal tissue types and 20 major cancer types. Based on HPA10M, we trained iSight, a multi-task learning framework for automated IHC staining assessment. iSight combines visual features from whole-slide images with tissue metadata through a token-level attention mechanism, simultaneously predicting staining intensity, location, quantity, tissue type, and malignancy status. On held-out data, iSight achieved 85.5\% accuracy for location, 76.6\% for intensity, and 75.7\% for quantity, outperforming fine-tuned foundation models (PLIP, CONCH) by 2.5--10.2\%. In addition, iSight demonstrates well-calibrated predictions with expected calibration errors of 0.0150-0.0408. Furthermore, in a user study with eight pathologists evaluating 200 images from two datasets, iSight outperformed initial pathologist assessments on the held-out HPA dataset (79\% vs 68\% for location, 70\% vs 57\% for intensity, 68\% vs 52\% for quantity). Inter-pathologist agreement also improved after AI assistance in both held-out HPA (Cohen's $κ$ increased from 0.63 to 0.70) and Stanford TMAD datasets (from 0.74 to 0.76), suggesting expert--AI co-assessment can improve IHC interpretation. This work establishes a foundation for AI systems that can improve IHC diagnostic accuracy and highlights the potential for integrating iSight into clinical workflows to enhance the consistency and reliability of IHC assessment.

Adaptation of Agentic AI

Cutting-edge agentic AI systems are built on foundation models that can be adapted to plan, reason, and interact with external tools to perform increasingly complex and specialized tasks. As these systems grow in capability and scope, adaptation becomes a central mechanism for improving performance, reliability, and generalization. In this paper, we unify the rapidly expanding research landscape into a systematic framework that spans both agent adaptations and tool adaptations. We further decompose these into tool-execution-signaled and agent-output-signaled forms of agent adaptation, as well as agent-agnostic and agent-supervised forms of tool adaptation. We demonstrate that this framework helps clarify the design space of adaptation strategies in agentic AI, makes their trade-offs explicit, and provides practical guidance for selecting or switching among strategies during system design. We then review the representative approaches in each category, analyze their strengths and limitations, and highlight key open challenges and future opportunities. Overall, this paper aims to offer a conceptual foundation and practical roadmap for researchers and practitioners seeking to build more capable, efficient, and reliable agentic AI systems.

Learning Human-Perceived Fakeness in AI-Generated Videos via Multimodal LLMs

Can humans identify AI-generated (fake) videos and provide grounded reasons? While video generation models have advanced rapidly, a critical dimension -- whether humans can detect deepfake traces within a generated video, i.e., spatiotemporal grounded visual artifacts that reveal a video as machine generated -- has been largely overlooked. We introduce DeeptraceReward, the first fine-grained, spatially- and temporally- aware benchmark that annotates human-perceived fake traces for video generation reward. The dataset comprises 4.3K detailed annotations across 3.3K high-quality generated videos. Each annotation provides a natural-language explanation, pinpoints a bounding-box region containing the perceived trace, and marks precise onset and offset timestamps. We consolidate these annotations into 9 major categories of deepfake traces that lead humans to identify a video as AI-generated, and train multimodal language models (LMs) as reward models to mimic human judgments and localizations. On DeeptraceReward, our 7B reward model outperforms GPT-5 by 34.7% on average across fake clue identification, grounding, and explanation. Interestingly, we observe a consistent difficulty gradient: binary fake v.s. real classification is substantially easier than fine-grained deepfake trace detection; within the latter, performance degrades from natural language explanations (easiest), to spatial grounding, to temporal labeling (hardest). By foregrounding human-perceived deepfake traces, DeeptraceReward provides a rigorous testbed and training signal for socially aware and trustworthy video generation.

Solving Inequality Proofs with Large Language Models

Inequality proving, crucial across diverse scientific and mathematical fields, tests advanced reasoning skills such as discovering tight bounds and strategic theorem application. This makes it a distinct, demanding frontier for large language models (LLMs), offering insights beyond general mathematical problem-solving. Progress in this area is hampered by existing datasets that are often scarce, synthetic, or rigidly formal. We address this by proposing an informal yet verifiable task formulation, recasting inequality proving into two automatically checkable subtasks: bound estimation and relation prediction. Building on this, we release IneqMath, an expert-curated dataset of Olympiad-level inequalities, including a test set and training corpus enriched with step-wise solutions and theorem annotations. We also develop a novel LLM-as-judge evaluation framework, combining a final-answer judge with four step-wise judges designed to detect common reasoning flaws. A systematic evaluation of 29 leading LLMs on IneqMath reveals a surprising reality: even top models like o1 achieve less than 10% overall accuracy under step-wise scrutiny; this is a drop of up to 65.5% from their accuracy considering only final answer equivalence. This discrepancy exposes fragile deductive chains and a critical gap for current LLMs between merely finding an answer and constructing a rigorous proof. Scaling model size and increasing test-time computation yield limited gains in overall proof correctness. Instead, our findings highlight promising research directions such as theorem-guided reasoning and self-refinement. Code and data are available at https://ineqmath.github.io/.

Towards Artificial Intelligence Research Assistant for Expert-Involved Learning

Large Language Models (LLMs) and Large Multi-Modal Models (LMMs) have emerged as transformative tools in scientific research, yet their reliability and specific contributions to biomedical applications remain insufficiently characterized. In this study, we present \textbf{AR}tificial \textbf{I}ntelligence research assistant for \textbf{E}xpert-involved \textbf{L}earning (ARIEL), a multimodal dataset designed to benchmark and enhance two critical capabilities of LLMs and LMMs in biomedical research: summarizing extensive scientific texts and interpreting complex biomedical figures. To facilitate rigorous assessment, we create two open-source sets comprising biomedical articles and figures with designed questions. We systematically benchmark both open- and closed-source foundation models, incorporating expert-driven human evaluations conducted by doctoral-level experts. Furthermore, we improve model performance through targeted prompt engineering and fine-tuning strategies for summarizing research papers, and apply test-time computational scaling to enhance the reasoning capabilities of LMMs, achieving superior accuracy compared to human-expert corrections. We also explore the potential of using LMM Agents to generate scientific hypotheses from diverse multimodal inputs. Overall, our results delineate clear strengths and highlight significant limitations of current foundation models, providing actionable insights and guiding future advancements in deploying large-scale language and multi-modal models within biomedical research.

Weak-for-Strong: Training Weak Meta-Agent to Harness Strong Executors

Efficiently leveraging of the capabilities of contemporary large language models (LLMs) is increasingly challenging, particularly when direct fine-tuning is expensive and often impractical. Existing training-free methods, including manually or automated designed workflows, typically demand substantial human effort or yield suboptimal results. This paper proposes Weak-for-Strong Harnessing (W4S), a novel framework that customizes smaller, cost-efficient language models to design and optimize workflows for harnessing stronger models. W4S formulates workflow design as a multi-turn markov decision process and introduces reinforcement learning for agentic workflow optimization (RLAO) to train a weak meta-agent. Through iterative interaction with the environment, the meta-agent learns to design increasingly effective workflows without manual intervention. Empirical results demonstrate the superiority of W4S that our 7B meta-agent, trained with just one GPU hour, outperforms the strongest baseline by 2.9% ~ 24.6% across eleven benchmarks, successfully elevating the performance of state-of-the-art models such as GPT-3.5-Turbo and GPT-4o. Notably, W4S exhibits strong generalization capabilities across both seen and unseen tasks, offering an efficient, high-performing alternative to directly fine-tuning strong models.